Israel Raises Alert as Iran Escalates in Hormuz; Coalition Tensions Mount Ahead of Elections

Thursday's briefing covers rising regional tensions linked to Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi missile attacks in Yemen, a domestic coalition dispute between Netanyahu and Ben Gvir, continued diplomatic friction over genocide allegations and antisemitism abroad, and new details on Hamas's reported plans to manufacture a fresh 'starvation' narrative in Gaza.

Security

Iran has intensified attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with a container vessel sinking after reportedly being struck by a missile, despite Tehran's claim it hit a mine; maritime industry sources say valuable cargo spilled into the water. The escalation appears aimed at driving up fuel prices. Israeli security officials believe Netanyahu and Trump will avoid striking Iran before elections in both countries due to political risk, but the defence establishment is preparing for the possibility of a surprise attack by Iran, Hezbollah or the Houthis, amid fears a miscalculation could trigger a wider confrontation. Separately, Houthi forces fired missiles at the presidential palace in Aden, Yemen, killing at least four people, while also targeting the city of Marib; Saudi forces intercepted a missile over Medina. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Netanyahu on Thursday evening after a separate call with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, with discussions focused on developments in southern Lebanon and the wider region. Israeli assessments also suggest Hamas is preparing a new international pressure campaign alleging starvation in Gaza, as the group struggles to pay roughly 90 million shekels in monthly salaries and imposes heavy taxes on aid convoys, reportedly exploiting resulting shortages to undermine the Trump-backed 'points plan'.

Politics

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear he intends to keep the defence and public security portfolios within Likud in any future government, effectively ruling out Itamar Ben Gvir for either role; Otzma Yehudit responded by declaring a decision had been made to remove Ben Gvir from the coalition. Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana told a gathering of European parliamentary leaders that genocide accusations against Israel are a 'despicable lie', accusing world leaders of hypocrisy and invoking both the Holocaust and the October 7 massacre. President Isaac Herzog is set to travel to Budapest next week for a first meeting with Hungary's prime minister-elect Peter Magyar, with discussions expected to cover strained Israel-Europe relations and Israel's upcoming Knesset elections; Magyar has said he does not expect Netanyahu to attend Hungary's Republic Day events despite having extended an invitation. In a Ynet podcast interview, Yoav Haddad, a leading figure in the Winter party, addressed past comments on a two-state solution, ruled out sitting with Avigdor Liberman or relying on Ra'am in a future coalition, and said he had personally pursued contacts regarding voluntary emigration from Gaza. A new poll found support for 'armed resistance' is rising among Palestinians amid continued Gaza airstrikes, with Hamas's popularity declining; Marwan Barghouti remains the most popular Palestinian political figure, though support for independent figures such as Bashar Masri and Mustafa Barghouti is growing.

International

Former US President Barack Obama told a Belfast audience that Israel had 'taken the land' from Palestinians and had 'ceded moral ground', suggesting the hostility towards Israel following the October 7 massacre indicated the need for a 'genuine cessation' of conflict. In Britain, the Equality and Human Rights Commission confirmed it has written to the Green Party to assess the impact of a recently passed motion stating 'Zionism is racism', with a spokesperson acknowledging many Jewish people are feeling vulnerable. British Transport Police are hunting a woman filmed shouting 'Dirty Zionists!' at commuters at Golders Green Tube station while wearing a keffiyeh. Former cabinet minister Sir James Cleverly, campaigning to become the Conservative candidate for London mayor, told Jewish News that Sadiq Khan has failed Jewish Londoners over security concerns, insisting 'every community deserves to feel safe in London'.

Technology

Researchers say Israeli firm Discover-Tech ran a vast covert operation using online advertisements to track and identify internet users, even those who never clicked on the ads concerned. Some of the adverts were reportedly used to deploy spyware linked to Candiru, an Israeli firm previously blacklisted over its surveillance technology.

Other Developments

Rights groups have documented a 'dangerous' surge in the use of rubber bullets against Palestinian inmates in Israeli jails, with some shootings causing severe untreated injuries; one detainee reportedly had a testicle removed after it was crushed by a bullet. Separately, a new documentary titled 'Hostages' has drawn praise for securing rare testimony from senior Hamas figures and offering a detailed account of negotiations for the hostages' release, though critics say it falls short of journalistic objectivity at points.

Media Consensus

Israeli outlets broadly agree that regional tensions are rising, with Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks in Yemen prompting heightened Israeli security readiness ahead of elections. Domestic coverage converges on the Netanyahu-Ben Gvir coalition rift as a major unresolved political story, while international and Jewish diaspora outlets focus heavily on antisemitism incidents and diplomatic disputes in the UK and Ireland.

What to Watch

  • Whether Iran's continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz trigger a broader escalation involving Israel, Hezbollah or the Houthis before elections
  • How the Netanyahu-Ben Gvir coalition dispute over security portfolios resolves ahead of the next government's formation
  • The outcome of President Herzog's meeting with Hungary's Peter Magyar in Budapest and its implications for Israel-Europe relations

Sources: Ynet, Walla, www.israelhayom.co.il, Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post

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