Tuesday's news agenda was dominated by a fresh investigation alleging that the UAE gave Israel an explicit warning of a Hamas attack days before October 7, 2023 — a claim the Prime Minister's Office has strongly denied. On the domestic front, political parties are racing to finalise their Knesset election lists, with high-profile reservists and a first-ever female Haredi candidate among the notable additions. Abroad, Iran touted an upgraded ballistic missile and vowed pre-emptive action against threats, the Houthis threatened a major operation against Saudi Arabia, and Germany's far-right AfD scored a historic result in a regional election.

Security

A new investigation cited by Haaretz claims that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed held a 45-minute phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu roughly a week and a half before October 7, warning explicitly that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was planning a major attack. According to the report, Netanyahu reassured his counterpart that Israel was prepared for any scenario, but the warning was allegedly not passed on to Israel's security chiefs, with the Prime Minister reportedly assessing that any problem would emerge in the West Bank rather than Gaza. The Prime Minister's Office has dismissed the report as "a total lie." Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who recently met bin Zayed, said the account was accurate. Separately, Iran announced an upgraded ballistic missile, claiming it had been tested against a US warship, with a senior official vowing pre-emptive action against perceived threats. The UN's nuclear watchdog chief urged Tehran to cooperate as Western nations push to refer the country to the Security Council. In the Gulf, Houthi rebels announced plans for a "broad operation deep into Saudi territory," prompting a warning from the Saudi-led coalition that it would take all necessary measures to counter the threat.

Politics

With elections to the 26th Knesset approaching, parties are finalising their candidate lists. Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, unveiled its slate, featuring reserve Lieutenant Colonel Dror Amos, who oversees Haifa's religious council, while youth representative Yinon Azoulay jumped from seventh to second place. Likud confirmed reservist Elisha Madan, who lost both legs in fighting in Beit Hanoun and co-founded the settlement of Avigail in the South Hebron Hills, will be reserved the 11th slot on its list, with the party praising his recovery as "a symbol of strength, determination and faith in the power of life." Former MK Yoni Chetboun, a decorated reservist lieutenant colonel, was also reportedly discussed for a reserved slot during last-minute consultations. In a first for Israeli politics, an ultra-Orthodox party has selected a woman, academic Dr Nechumi Yaffe, to run on its Knesset slate; Yaffe served as special adviser for Haredi affairs on the National Security Council and coordinated emergency response efforts for families after October 7. Attention is also turning to who might become the next defence minister, with at least four candidates — each representing a distinct security doctrine — under consideration for one of the most sensitive portfolios in the next government.

International

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) scored a historic result in the Saxony-Anhalt regional election, winning 44% of the vote. Chancellor-hopeful Friedrich Merz said it was impossible to "go back to business as usual" after the result, which has prompted other European leaders to question whether similar gains could be replicated elsewhere on the continent. In London, David Miliband's sanctions plan targeting Israeli settlements is due to be announced, with new measures aimed at agricultural goods imported from West Bank settlements, though stopping short of hitting the broader service sector. Newly revealed documents show that a secret 1993 meeting between Shimon Peres and Jordan's King Hussein helped pave the way for the Israel-Jordan peace treaty, with the Peres Center for Peace and Innovation describing the exchange as a "testament for peace" between two leaders seeking to reshape the region. Separately, the Wall Street Journal reports that no Iranian crude oil shipment has successfully left the Persian Gulf since the US renewed its blockade in July.

Other Developments

A comedy festival in Lisbon has sparked controversy after several Portuguese artists withdrew in protest at the selection of Jerry Seinfeld, a vocal supporter of Israel, as the event's headline act, with critics saying they "cannot normalise genocide." Meanwhile, historian Simon Schama used a speech at a Holocaust Educational Trust dinner to criticise those accusing Israel of genocide, saying it was shameful for the descendants of the Holocaust's victims to be branded perpetrators of genocide. On the weather front, Israel's Meteorological Service is forecasting an unusually wet autumn and winter, with October expected to bring roughly double the average rainfall, following one more day of heavy heat before temperatures gradually ease later this week.

Sources: Ynet, Walla, www.israelhayom.co.il, Times of Israel, Jerusalem Post