Iran’s Gamble: ‘Trump Will Back Down Eventually’

Iran is banking on outlasting the United States in a high-stakes game of brinkmanship, according to regional analysts, even as Donald Trump repeatedly cycles between threatening imminent military strikes and signalling openness to negotiations. Tehran’s strategy relies on what officials describe as ‘calibrated escalation’—carefully timed provocations designed to test American resolve without crossing a threshold that would trigger a full-scale conflict.

Gulf-based intelligence assessments suggest Iranian leadership genuinely believes it can win a battle of attrition against Washington. The calculation rests on the assumption that economic costs, domestic political pressure, and international opposition will eventually force the Trump administration to make concessions. This approach has worked in previous standoffs, emboldening Iranian decision-makers to believe they can repeat the outcome.

However, regional observers caution that this strategy carries extraordinary risks. The cycle of threats followed by diplomatic overtures creates an inherently unstable dynamic, with each escalation raising the possibility of miscalculation or an unintended military confrontation. One misconstrued signal, a misidentified military asset, or a domestic political pressure point could rapidly spiral into a broader regional conflict that neither side originally intended.

The danger lies not in deliberate choices but in the unpredictability of extended brinkmanship. Experts warn that Iran’s confidence in its endurance strategy may prove dangerously misplaced if momentum shifts unexpectedly, leaving both powers locked in a conflict neither fully controlled.

Source: Ynet — Original article in Hebrew.